新冠疫情防控中的复杂决策研究——基于江苏省全员核酸检测系统上云部署的实践

Complex Decisions in the COVID-19 Epidemic Prevention and Control: Based on the Cloud Platform Deployment of the Whole Citizen Nucleic Acid Testing System in Jiangsu Province

《外国经济与管理》2023年45卷第1期 页码：55 - 66 online：2023年1月20日

作者

中：白佳1 , 燕雪2 , 智勇3

英：Bai Jia1 , Yan Xue2 , Zhi Yong3

作者单位：1.南京大学 信息管理学院, 江苏 南京 210023; 2.南京审计大学 金融学院, 江苏 南京 211815; 3.中国移动通信集团 江苏有限公司, 江苏 南京 210029

摘要及关键词

摘要：新冠疫情防控具有“突发状况多、规范性少、独特性多”的特征，云计算、大数据等新型信息技术的使用为疫情防控工作提供了有力的支撑手段，但也凸显决策主体的认知缺陷问题。本文基于复杂决策理论，以2021年南京禄口机场突发新冠疫情后江苏省成功快速完成全员核酸检测系统上云部署为例，结合情景参与收集的数据，着重探究弥补决策主体认知缺陷的有效方法和实现路径。研究结果表明：（1）决策主体可以从决策问题的复杂性分析、决策目标的综合控制、决策过程的迭代、决策方案的递进优化四个维度来弥补其认知缺陷。（2）决策组织平台在初始阶段须以政府为序主体，并在不同决策阶段自发或推选确定不同的序主体。（3）“物理复杂性—系统复杂性—管理复杂性”的协同转换为复杂系统思维范式转移的有效路径。本研究对于在复杂紧急情况下如何作出与新技术应用相关的复杂决策，以及提升政府等主体的疫情防控管理决策水平具有理论意义和实践价值。

关键词：新冠疫情；云平台；认知缺陷；复杂决策；复杂系统管理

Summary: The COVID-19 epidemic prevention and control work is characterized by “more unexpectedness, less standardization and more uniqueness”. The use of cloud computing, big data and other new types of information technologies has provided a powerful support for epidemic prevention and control. In the meanwhile, it increases the corresponding system complexity, which leads to the cognitive defect of decision-makers much more highlighted. Based on the complex decision theory, this paper explores the effective method and realization path to compensate for the cognitive defect of decision-makers by taking the cloud platform deployment of the Whole Citizens Nucleic Acid Testing System in Jiangsu Province as an example, in combination with data collected through the situational participation method. The conclusions are that: (1) Decision-makers can make up for their cognitive defect from four dimensions which are the complexity analysis of decision-making problems, the comprehensive control of decision-making targets, the iteration of decision-making processes, and the progressive optimization of decision-making schemes. (2) The decision-making organization platform must take the government as the dominant subject at the initial stage, and determine different dominant subjects spontaneously or by election in different decision-making periods. (3) The collaborative transformation of “physical complexity—system complexity—management complexity” is an effective path for the paradigm shift of complex system thought. This study has theoretical significance and practical value for how to make complex decisions related to the application of new technologies in complex emergencies, and improve the epidemic prevention and control management decision-making level of the government and other decision-makers.

Key words: COVID-19 epidemic; cloud platform; cognitive defect; complex decision; complex system management

其他信息

DOI：10.16538/j.cnki.fem.20220621.102

收稿日期：2022-01-17

基金项目：教育部人文社会科学研究青年项目（20YJCZH203）

点

这里“阅读原文”，查看更多